Russia Attacks.

He Who Unleashes the Maelstrom Must Live With the Aftermath

Vladimir Putin had a good thing going.  Now he doesn’t.

Russia is a demographically dying nation.  Further, its gross domestic product is barely above that of South Korea — but with 95 million more mouths to feed. Its GDP *per capita* is less than Costa Rica, Hungary or Argentina. And Russia’s primary source of income (most estimates hover around 35-40% of GDP) comes from exporting oil and natural gas.  As long as he kept the world on edge, the price of oil and gas went up, up and up.  Russia's economy benefited hugely from all the saber-rattling. 

He did not have to attack to make Russia economically stronger every day.  But his fantasy of reincarnating the USSR to its former glory and geography as his legacy blinds him to all other problems or solutions.

I expect oil and gas will rise even more in the short term.   But from this point forward, Russia will not benefit as much from its primary export.  Oil may rise and it may stay elevated for some time, but Russia will not be selling as much to any country -- except perhaps China.  Xi Jinping will do his best to help Putin but, realistically, China's current needs are already rather well met by Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela (less and less,) and Russia.

I believe most EU and NATO nations will finally come together to enforce most sanctions.  Germany is the wild card.  Having shut down their cleanest large-scale source of energy, nuclear, in a panic after Fukushima, they are desperate for Russian natural gas and oil. 

German politicians talk a good line about solar and wind but in Germany the days are short in winter.  The flatlands are often covered in fog or low clouds.  So much for solar. Wind is intermittent. These are not the solution to Germany’s problem. If Norway, Canada and the US can make up a good part of the difference in oil and natural gas, Germany might more readily embrace the sanctions.

Sadly, the sanctions cannot be too broad-based.  They cannot seriously affect the everyday Russian people, who for the most part only know what the Kremlin's propaganda machine tells them.  Too tight a pressure from too broad sanctions would reinforce both the propaganda and the historic Russian suspicion that they are beleaguered from all sides.  

RFE/RL (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty) broadcasts thoughtful and truthful news via Radio Svoboda, but Putin's various thugs, in uniform and out, "discourage" listening.

Even so, Putin is making a huge mistake.  Russia's income will suffer, and its expenses will be severe.  My military friends on this site know well the difficulty of maintaining lines of communication and logistics support in the best of times.  A Ukrainian winter is not the best of times.

Will he achieve his goal of annexing the Donbas region of Ukraine?  Yes.  It will be even easier than the 2014 assault on Crimea.  Will he achieve his goal of installing a puppet regime in Kyiv, as he has done in Belarus and effectively done in Kazakhstan?  If he really wants the loss in blood and treasure, probably.

However, having once tasted freedom, the Ukrainian people will not stand by compliantly and they certainly won't throw rose petals in the path of the Russian advance.  Winning a battle, even an extended one, is not the same as winning the war.  Russia will have to deploy huge numbers of troops to keep the people of Ukraine under control after the primary fighting has ended.

Many Russian mothers still remember Russia's debacle in Afghanistan. Many more will see it anew as Russia tries to occupy Ukraine or control it, a la Afghanistan, through a puppet ruler.  Russian boys sent home in body bags tends to dull even the most fervent rebuild-the-USSR diehard.

Beyond Ukraine, Russia will have opened a whole new bag of worms in Europe.  Finland has already suffered mightily, and more than once, at the hands of a land-grabbing Russia.  Seeing what is happening to Ukraine, I can only imagine that Sanna Marin, the Finnish prime minister, is on the phone right now to Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary general of NATO, inquiring what it will take to expedite membership.

Even traditionally neutral Sweden will be paying close attention to events in Ukraine. Gotland, Sweden's largest island, is just 205 miles from Kaliningrad, home of the Russian Baltic Fleet.  

This is a wake-up call for all of Europe, but the implications extend well beyond Europe's shores.  When one man on a messianic mission can endanger millions, there are those who will certainly note the parallels in governance in other one-man rule in nations like Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and the People's Republic of China.  

Putin has unleashed the maelstrom.  Let him now live with it.

© Joseph L Shaefer 2022